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  Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information

Gambhir, A., Mittal, S., Lamboll, R. D., Grant, N., Bernie, D., Gohar, L., Hawkes, A., Köberle, A., Rogelj, J., Lowe, J. A. (2023): Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information. - Nature Communications, 14, 5117.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40673-4

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8118060 (Ergänzendes Material)
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 Urheber:
Gambhir, Ajay1, Autor
Mittal, Shivika1, Autor
Lamboll, Robin D.1, Autor
Grant, Neil1, Autor
Bernie, Dan1, Autor
Gohar, Laila1, Autor
Hawkes, Adam1, Autor
Köberle, Alexandre2, Autor              
Rogelj, Joeri1, Autor
Lowe, Jason A.1, Autor
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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Schlagwörter: Climate change, Climate-change mitigation, Projection and prediction
 Zusammenfassung: Understanding how 1.5 °C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5 °C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment, is critical for planning resilient pathways. We use an integrated assessment model to explore potential pathway adjustments starting in 2025 and 2030, following the arrival of new information. The 1.5 °C target remains achievable in the model, in light of some adverse information, provided a broad portfolio of technologies and measures is still available. If multiple pieces of adverse information arrive simultaneously, average annual emissions reductions near 3 GtCO2/yr for the first five years following the pathway adjustment, compared to 2 GtCO2/yr in 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic began. Moreover, in these scenarios of multiple simultaneous adverse information, by 2050 mitigation costs are 4-5 times as high as a no adverse information scenario, highlighting the criticality of developing a wide range of mitigation options, including energy demand reduction options.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2023-01-102023-08-072023-08-232023-08-23
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 13
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40673-4
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see DOI)
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Regional keyword: Global
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Nature Communications
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Urheber:
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 14 Artikelnummer: 5117 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354
Publisher: Nature