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  Dansgaard–Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol

Malmierca-Vallet, I., Sime, L. C., Abe-Ouchi, A., Born, A., Bouttes, N., DItlevsen, P., Erb, M. P., Feulner, G., Gowan, E. J., Gregoire, L., Guo, C., Harrison, S. P., Andres, H., Kageyama, M., Klockmann, M., Lambert, F., LeGrande, A. N., Merkel, U., Nazarenko, L. S., Nisancioglu, K. H., Oliver, K., Otto-Bliesner, B., Peltier, W. R., Prange, M., Rehfeld, K., Robinson, A. J., Tarasov, L., Valdes, P. J., Vettoretti, G., Weitzel, N., Zhang, Q., Zhang, X. (2023): Dansgaard–Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol. - Climate of the Past, 19, 5, 915-942.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023

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Malmierca-Vallet, Irene1, Author
Sime, Louise C.1, Author
Abe-Ouchi, A.1, Author
Born, A.1, Author
Bouttes, N.1, Author
DItlevsen, P.1, Author
Erb, M. P.1, Author
Feulner, Georg2, Author              
Gowan, E. J.1, Author
Gregoire, L.1, Author
Guo, C.1, Author
Harrison, S. P.1, Author
Andres, H.1, Author
Kageyama, M.1, Author
Klockmann, M.1, Author
Lambert, F.1, Author
LeGrande, A. N.1, Author
Merkel, U.1, Author
Nazarenko, L. S.1, Author
Nisancioglu, K. H.1, Author
Oliver, K.1, AuthorOtto-Bliesner, B.1, AuthorPeltier, W. R.1, AuthorPrange, M.1, AuthorRehfeld, K.1, AuthorRobinson, A. J.1, AuthorTarasov, L.1, AuthorValdes, P. J.1, AuthorVettoretti, G.1, AuthorWeitzel, N.1, AuthorZhang, Q.1, AuthorZhang, X.1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events, millennial-scale climate oscillations between stadial and interstadial conditions (of up to 10–15 ∘C in amplitude at high northern latitudes), occurred throughout the Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3; 27.8–59.4 ka) period. The climate modelling community up to now has not been able to answer the question of whether our climate models are too stable to simulate D–O events. To address this, this paper lays the ground-work for a MIS3 D–O protocol for general circulation models which are used in the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. We review the following: D–O terminology, community progress on simulating D–O events in these IPCC-class models (processes and published examples), and evidence about the boundary conditions under which D–O events occur. We find that no model exhibits D–O-like behaviour under pre-industrial conditions. Some, but not all, models exhibit D–O-like oscillations under MIS3 and/or full glacial conditions. Greenhouse gases and ice sheet configurations are crucial. However most models have not run simulations of long enough duration to be sure which models show D–O-like behaviour, under either MIS3 or full glacial states. We propose a MIS3 baseline protocol at 34 ka, which features low obliquity values, medium to low MIS3 greenhouse gas values, and the intermediate ice sheet configuration, which our review suggests are most conducive to D–O-like behaviour in models. We also provide a protocol for a second freshwater (Heinrich-event-preconditioned) experiment, since previous work suggests that this variant may be helpful in preconditioning a state in models which is conducive to D–O events. This review provides modelling groups investigating MIS3 D–O oscillations with a common framework, which is aimed at (1) maximising the chance of the occurrence of D–O-like events in the simulations, (2) allowing more precise model–data evaluation, and (3) providing an adequate central point for modellers to explore model stability.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-05-082023-05-08
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 28
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/cp-19-915-2023
MDB-ID: No data to archive
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Earth System Modes of Operation
Research topic keyword: Paleoclimate
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Research topic keyword: Oceans
Research topic keyword: Ice
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Climate of the Past
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 19 (5) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 915 - 942 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals78
Publisher: Copernicus