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  Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions

Zakeri, B., Paulavets, K., Barreto-Gomez, L., Echeverri, L. G., Pachauri, S., Boza-Kiss, B., Zimm, C., Rogelj, J., Creutzig, F., Ürge-Vorsatz, D., Victor, D. G., Bazilian, M. D., Fritz, S., Gielen, D., McCollum, D. L., Srivastava, L., Hunt, J. D., Pouya, S. (2022): Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions. - Energies, 15, 17, 6114.
https://doi.org/10.3390/en15176114

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Zakeri, B.1, Author
Paulavets, K., Author
Barreto-Gomez, L., Author
Echeverri, L. G., Author
Pachauri, S., Author
Boza-Kiss, B., Author
Zimm, C., Author
Rogelj, J., Author
Creutzig, Felix, Author
Ürge-Vorsatz, D., Author
Victor, D. G., Author
Bazilian, M. D., Author
Fritz, S., Author
Gielen, D., Author
McCollum, D. L., Author
Srivastava, L., Author
Hunt, J. D., Author
Pouya, S., Author
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war on Ukraine have impacted the global economy, including the energy sector. The pandemic caused drastic fluctuations in energy demand, oil price shocks, disruptions in energy supply chains, and hampered energy investments, while the war left the world with energy price hikes and energy security challenges. The long-term impacts of these crises on low-carbon energy transitions and mitigation of climate change are still uncertain but are slowly emerging. This paper analyzes the impacts throughout the energy system, including upstream fuel supply, renewable energy investments, demand for energy services, and implications for energy equity, by reviewing recent studies and consulting experts in the field. We find that both crises initially appeared as opportunities for low-carbon energy transitions: the pandemic by showing the extent of lifestyle and behavioral change in a short period and the role of science-based policy advice, and the war by highlighting the need for greater energy diversification and reliance on local, renewable energy sources. However, the early evidence suggests that policymaking worldwide is focused on short-term, seemingly quicker solutions, such as supporting the incumbent energy industry in the post-pandemic era to save the economy and looking for new fossil fuel supply routes for enhancing energy security following the war. As such, the fossil fuel industry may emerge even stronger after these energy crises creating new lock-ins. This implies that the public sentiment against dependency on fossil fuels may end as a lost opportunity to translate into actions toward climate-friendly energy transitions, without ambitious plans for phasing out such fuels altogether. We propose policy recommendations to overcome these challenges toward achieving resilient and sustainable energy systems, mostly driven by energy services.

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 Dates: 2022
 Publication Status: Finally published
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 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.3390/en15176114
BibTex Citekey: RN1078
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Title: Energies
Source Genre: Journal
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 15 (17) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 6114 Identifier: PIKDOMAIN: RD5 - Climate Economics and Policy - MCC Berlin
Organisational keyword: RD5 - Climate Economics and Policy - MCC Berlin
Working Group: Cities: Data Science and Sustainable Planning