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  Intraseasonal synchronization of extreme rainfall between North India and the Sahel

Strnad, F. M., Hunt, K. M., Boers, N., Goswami, B. (2025 online): Intraseasonal synchronization of extreme rainfall between North India and the Sahel. - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4946

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Strnad, Felix M.1, Author
Hunt, Kieran M.R.1, Author
Boers, Niklas2, Author              
Goswami, Bedartha1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the West African Monsoon (WAM) are dominant drivers of boreal summer precipitation variability in tropical and subtropical regions. Although the regional precipitation dynamics in these two regions have been extensively studied, the intraseasonal interactions between the ISM and WAM remain poorly understood. Here, we employ a climate network approach based on extreme rainfall events to uncover synchronously occurring extreme rainfall patterns across the two monsoon systems. We reveal strong synchronization of extreme rainfall events during the peak monsoon period in July and August, linking heavy rainfall over North India to that over the Sahel with a lag of around 12 days. We find that La Niña like conditions in combination with the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) and an enhanced Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) foster the synchronization between the ISM and the WAM. The northward-propagating BSISO triggers African Easterly Wave activity, bounded between a reduced African Easterly Jet and the TEJ. These induce westward-traveling anomalous deep convection over the Sahel, which causes extreme rainfall events to occur.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2025-02-18
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: 22
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1002/qj.4946
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Working Group: Artificial Intelligence
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
MDB-ID: No data to archive
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals414
Publisher: Wiley