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  Hedging our bet on forest permanence for the economic viability of climate targets

Windisch, M. G., Humpenöder, F., Merfort, L., Bauer, N., Luderer, G., Dietrich, J. P., Heinke, J., Müller, C., Abrahão, G. M., Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A. (2025): Hedging our bet on forest permanence for the economic viability of climate targets. - Nature Communications, 16, 2460.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57607-x

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14772621 (Ergänzendes Material)
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Model Output and Results

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 Urheber:
Windisch, Michael G.1, Autor              
Humpenöder, Florian1, Autor              
Merfort, Leon1, Autor              
Bauer, Nicolas1, Autor              
Luderer, Gunnar1, Autor              
Dietrich, Jan Philipp1, Autor              
Heinke, Jens1, Autor              
Müller, Christoph1, Autor              
Abrahão, Gabriel Medeiros1, Autor              
Lotze-Campen, Hermann1, Autor              
Popp, Alexander1, Autor              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Achieving the Paris Agreement’s CO2 emission reduction goals heavily relies on enhancing carbon storage and sequestration in forests globally. Yet, the increasing vulnerability of carbon stored in forests to both climate change and human intervention is often neglected in current mitigation strategies. Our study explores modelled interactions between key emission sectors, indicating that accelerated decarbonization could meet climate objectives despite forest carbon losses due to disturbances. However, delaying action on forest carbon loss by just five years consistently doubles the additional mitigation costs and efforts across key sectors, regardless of the assessed forest disturbance rates. Moreover, these myopic responses to forest carbon loss are as stringent, or even more demanding, than immediate responses to twice the forest disturbance rate. Our results underline the urgent need to monitor and safeguard forests for the economic feasibility of the Paris Agreement’s climate goals.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2024-05-212025-02-202025-03-272025-03-27
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 10
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Biosphere Dynamics
Organisational keyword: Lab - Land Use Transition
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Integrated Assessment Modelling
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: CO2 Removal
Research topic keyword: Forest
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: LPJmL
Model / method: MAgPIE
Model / method: REMIND
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see locators/paper)
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-57607-x
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Nature Communications
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 16 Artikelnummer: 2460 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354
Publisher: Nature