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  Bathymetry-constrained warm-mode melt estimates derived from analysing oceanic gateways in Antarctica

Nicola, L., Reese, R., Kreuzer, M., Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R. (2025): Bathymetry-constrained warm-mode melt estimates derived from analysing oceanic gateways in Antarctica. - The Cryosphere, 19, 6, 2263-2287.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2263-2025

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???ViewItemFull_lblCiteItemAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_32120 ???ViewItemFull_lblCiteItemVersionAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_32120_3
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https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_32120_3/component/file_32461/32120oa.pdf
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15674807 (???ENUM_CONTENTCATEGORY_supplementary-material???)
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Data and code
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblCreators???:
Nicola, Lena1, 2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Reese, Ronja1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Kreuzer, Moritz1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Albrecht, Torsten1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Winkelmann, Ricarda1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
???ViewItemFull_lblAffiliations???:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_29970              

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblAbstract???: Melting underneath the floating ice shelves surrounding the Antarctic continent is a key process for the stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and therefore its current and future mass loss. Troughs and sills on the continental shelf play a crucial role in modulating sub-shelf melt rates, as they can allow or block the access of relatively warm, modified Circumpolar Deep Water to ice-shelf cavities. Here we identify potential oceanic gateways that could allow the access of warm water masses to Antarctic grounding lines based on critical access depths inferred from high-resolution bathymetry data. We analyse the properties of water masses that are currently present in front of the ice shelf and that might intrude into the respective ice-shelf cavities in the future. We use the ice-shelf cavity model PICO to estimate an upper limit of melt rate changes in case all warm water masses up to a certain depth level gain access to the cavities. We find that melt rates could increase in all regions at least by a factor of 2. Depending on the presence or absence of an oceanic gateway and the current ice-shelf melt conditions we find up to 200-fold larger melt rates. The identification of oceanic gateways is thus valuable for assessing the potential of ice-shelf cavities to switch from a 'cold' to a 'warm' state, which could result in widespread ice loss from Antarctica.

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???ViewItemFull_lblLanguages???: eng - English
 ???ViewItemFull_lblDates???: 2025-03-212025-06-272025-06-27
 ???ViewItemFull_lblPublicationStatus???: ???ViewItem_lblPublicationState_published-in-print???
 ???ViewItemFull_lblPages???: 25
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblRevisionMethod???: ???ENUM_REVIEWMETHOD_PEER???
 ???ViewItemFull_lblIdentifiers???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PIKDOMAIN???: Earth Resilience Science Unit - ERSU
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PIKDOMAIN???: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_ORGANISATIONALK???: Earth Resilience Science Unit - ERSU
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_ORGANISATIONALK???: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Ice
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_REGIONALK???: Arctic & Antarctica
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MODELMETHOD???: PISM-PIK
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MDB_ID???: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see locators/paper)
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_OATYPE???: Gold - Copernicus
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_DOI???: 10.5194/tc-19-2263-2025
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???ViewItemFull_lblSubHeaderSource??? 1

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???ViewItemFull_lblSourceTitle???: The Cryosphere
???ViewItemFull_lblSourceGenre???: ???ENUM_GENRE_JOURNAL???, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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???ViewItemFull_lblSourcePubInfo???: ???lbl_noEntry???
???ViewItemFull_lblPages???: ???lbl_noEntry??? ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceVolumeIssue???: 19 (6) ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceSequenceNo???: ???lbl_noEntry??? ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceStartEndPage???: 2263 - 2287 ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceIdentifier???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_CONE???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140507
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PUBLISHER???: Copernicus