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  Bathymetry-constrained warm-mode melt estimates derived from analysing oceanic gateways in Antarctica

Nicola, L., Reese, R., Kreuzer, M., Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R. (2025): Bathymetry-constrained warm-mode melt estimates derived from analysing oceanic gateways in Antarctica. - The Cryosphere, 19, 6, 2263-2287.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2263-2025

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Datensatz-Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_32120 Versions-Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_32120_3
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15674807 (Ergänzendes Material)
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 Urheber:
Nicola, Lena1, 2, Autor              
Reese, Ronja1, Autor              
Kreuzer, Moritz1, Autor              
Albrecht, Torsten1, Autor              
Winkelmann, Ricarda1, Autor              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_29970              

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 Zusammenfassung: Melting underneath the floating ice shelves surrounding the Antarctic continent is a key process for the stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and therefore its current and future mass loss. Troughs and sills on the continental shelf play a crucial role in modulating sub-shelf melt rates, as they can allow or block the access of relatively warm, modified Circumpolar Deep Water to ice-shelf cavities. Here we identify potential oceanic gateways that could allow the access of warm water masses to Antarctic grounding lines based on critical access depths inferred from high-resolution bathymetry data. We analyse the properties of water masses that are currently present in front of the ice shelf and that might intrude into the respective ice-shelf cavities in the future. We use the ice-shelf cavity model PICO to estimate an upper limit of melt rate changes in case all warm water masses up to a certain depth level gain access to the cavities. We find that melt rates could increase in all regions at least by a factor of 2. Depending on the presence or absence of an oceanic gateway and the current ice-shelf melt conditions we find up to 200-fold larger melt rates. The identification of oceanic gateways is thus valuable for assessing the potential of ice-shelf cavities to switch from a 'cold' to a 'warm' state, which could result in widespread ice loss from Antarctica.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2025-03-212025-06-272025-06-27
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 25
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: PIKDOMAIN: Earth Resilience Science Unit - ERSU
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: Earth Resilience Science Unit - ERSU
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Research topic keyword: Ice
Regional keyword: Arctic & Antarctica
Model / method: PISM-PIK
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see locators/paper)
OATYPE: Gold - Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/tc-19-2263-2025
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: The Cryosphere
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 19 (6) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 2263 - 2287 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140507
Publisher: Copernicus