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  Carbon prices on the rise? Shedding light on the emerging second EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS 2)

Günther, C., Pahle, M., Govoruhka, K., Osorio, S., Fotiou, T. (2025 online): Carbon prices on the rise? Shedding light on the emerging second EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS 2). - Climate Policy.
https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2025.2485196

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_32144 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_32144_1
Genre: Journal Article

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Carbon prices on the rise Shedding light on the emerging second EU Emissions Trading System EU ETS 2 .pdf (Publisher version), 992KB
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Carbon prices on the rise Shedding light on the emerging second EU Emissions Trading System EU ETS 2 .pdf
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 Creators:
Günther, Claudia1, 2, Author              
Pahle, Michael1, Author              
Govoruhka, Kristina3, Author
Osorio, Sebastian1, Author              
Fotiou, Theofano3, Author
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_29970              
3External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: As of 2027, the EU will implement a second Emission Trading System (EU ETS 2) to cap emissions in buildings, road transport and small industries not covered by the already existing European Emissions Trading System. Substantial uncertainty remains regarding potential price trajectories and their underlying drivers. In light of this, we explore EU ETS 2 price paths using the energy system model PRIMES. We focus on the effect of complementary efficiency policies (EPs), as earlier research suggests they could have a profound impact. Indeed, analyzing three scenarios with different EPs stringency, we find that they make EU ETS 2 prices vary between 71 EUR/tCO2 and 261 EUR/tCO2 in 2030. Despite different instruments driving emission abatement, comparable emission reductions at the EU level (−41%) are achieved in all three scenarios.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2024-07-122025-03-212025-04-16
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: 13
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2025.2485196
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Climate & Energy Policy
MDB-ID: No data to archive
OATYPE: Hybrid - Taylor & Francis
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
Regional keyword: Europe
Research topic keyword: Carbon Pricing
Research topic keyword: Economics
 Degree: -

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Project name : ARIADNE-2
Grant ID : 03SFK5A0-2
Funding program : -
Funding organization : Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)

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Title: Climate Policy
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/climate-policy
Publisher: Taylor & Francis