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Abstract:
The likelihood of intense heatwaves in South Asia is increasing due to climate change, highlighting the need to understand their evolving spatiotemporal patterns. Using a complex network-based approach, we analyze synchronous extreme heat events across South and West Asia over three 30-year periods: two historical phases (1960–1989, 1990–2019) and a near-future projection (2020–2049) under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. Our findings reveal a shift in heatwave synchronization from western and central Asia before 1990 towards Pakistan, northwest India, and the southwestern Tibetan Plateau by the mid-21st century. This shift is primarily driven by increased surface sensible heat flux, which enhances atmospheric diabatic heating and strengthens the early-summer circumglobal teleconnection. Additionally, atmospheric conditions over the North Atlantic-Greenland sector modulate South Asian heatwave synchronization. Our study provides novel insights into the evolving land-atmosphere interactions driving extreme heat events, with implications for heatwave predictability and risk assessment in a warming world.
