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  Macroscopic Stochastic Model for Economic Cycle Dynamics

Nagel, S., Heitzig, J., Schöll, E. (2025): Macroscopic Stochastic Model for Economic Cycle Dynamics. - Physical Review Letters, 134, 4, 047402.
https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.134.047402

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17101590 (Ergänzendes Material)
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 Urheber:
Nagel, Sören1, Autor                 
Heitzig, Jobst1, Autor                 
Schöll, Eckehard1, Autor                 
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: We present a stochastic dynamic model which can explain economic cycles. We show that the macroscopic description yields a complex dynamical landscape consisting of multiple stable fixed points, each corresponding to a split of the population into a large low and a small high income group. The stochastic fluctuations induce switching between the resulting metastable states and excitation oscillations just below a deterministic bifurcation. The shocks are caused by the decisions of a few agents who have a disproportionate influence over the macroscopic state of the economy due to the unequal distribution of wealth among the population. The fluctuations have a long-term effect on the growth of economic output and lead to business cycle oscillations exhibiting coherence resonance, where the correlation time is controlled by the population size which is inversely proportional to the noise intensity.

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Sprache(n): eng - English
 Datum: 2025-01-292025-01-29
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 6
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.134.047402
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see locators/paper)
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Working Group: Behavioural Game Theory and Interacting Agents
Research topic keyword: Economics
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Agent-based Models
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
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Titel: Physical Review Letters
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 134 (4) Artikelnummer: 047402 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals391
Publisher: American Physical Society (APS)