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  Earth system response to Heinrich events explained by a bipolar convection seesaw

Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Kaufhold, C., Dalmonech, D., Liu, B., Ilyina, T. (2025 online): Earth system response to Heinrich events explained by a bipolar convection seesaw. - Nature Geoscience.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01814-0

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15696715 (Research data)
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 Creators:
Willeit, Matteo1, 2, Author                 
Ganopolski, Andrey1, Author           
Kaufhold, Christine1, Author                 
Dalmonech, Daniela3, Author
Liu, Bo3, Author
Ilyina, Tatiana3, Author
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_29970              
3External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Abrupt climate changes repeatedly occurred during glacial periods, caused by intrinsic instabilities of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leading to Dansgaard–Oeschger events, and by the AMOC’s response to massive iceberg discharges in the North Atlantic, known as Heinrich events. This AMOC-driven millennial-scale climate variability is most prominent in the North Atlantic but also propagates to the Southern Ocean, where its imprint is particularly strong during cold (Stadial) phases featuring Heinrich events. Here we use an Earth system model to show that the qualitative differences between Heinrich Stadials and non-Heinrich Stadials seen in proxy records can be explained by a sudden start of convection in the Southern Ocean triggered by a strong weakening of the AMOC during Heinrich events. The sudden convection onset leads to rapid warming and sea ice retreat in the Southern Ocean, and the resulting ventilation of the deep ocean explains the rapid CO2 increase of ~15 ppm on centennial timescales during some Heinrich Stadials. We propose a general mechanism whereby a shutdown of convection in the North Atlantic triggers convection in the Southern Ocean—a phenomenon we refer to as a bipolar convection seesaw—which could also be activated by a potential future weakening of the AMOC.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2025-09-052025-10-03
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: 20
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01814-0
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Long-Term Trajectories
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see locators/paper)
Research topic keyword: Paleoclimate
Research topic keyword: Oceans
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: CLIMBER
OATYPE: Hybrid - Nature OA
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Geoscience
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals355
Publisher: Nature