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Abstract:
As disasters increase in frequency and intensity, assessing regional economic resilience has become increasingly crucial. Traditional methods based on weight-related indicators are not robust in capturing the complexities of post-disaster cascading effects. To address this gap, we combine the Acclimate model with a newly developed index to evaluate the economic resilience of regions in the interconnected economic network, which can simulate the recovery of regional economies in the aftermath of disasters. We employ Typhoon Mangkhut as a case study and show that it led to direct economic losses of $2.1 billion in China and a total global production loss of $10.5 billion, nearly five times the direct loss. Regions with higher economic resilience were predominantly located in China's Yangtze River Delta and along the East China Sea coast, while lower resilience regions were in China's northwestern and central areas. In the global economic network, regions with low resilience are those closely linked to China but do not serve core nodes in trade networks. Conversely, developed economies in Europe and East Asia that feature close economic ties with China are revealed to have high economic resilience, mainly because these countries are highly integrated into the global economic network and can shift trade connections to other economic partners. For the United States as another gigantic economy, eastern coastal regions demonstrate greater resilience than central and northern areas due to diversified trade networks. This study reveals the economic resilience of global economic networks after disasters, thereby supporting disaster risk management and regional governance.
