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  Inconclusive early warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events across Greenland ice cores

Hummel, C., Boers, N., Rypdal, M. (2025): Inconclusive early warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events across Greenland ice cores. - Earth System Dynamics, 16, 6, 2035-2062.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2035-2025

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17609374 (???ENUM_CONTENTCATEGORY_code???)
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblCreators???:
Hummel, Clara1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Boers, Niklas2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???                 
Rypdal, Martin1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
???ViewItemFull_lblAffiliations???:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblAbstract???: The Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events of past glacial episodes provide an archetypical example of abrupt climate shifts and are discernible, for example, in oxygen isotope ratios from Greenland ice core records. The causes and mechanisms underlying these events are still subjects of ongoing debate. It has previously been hypothesised that DO events may be triggered by bifurcations of mechanisms operating at decadal time scales, as indicated by a significant number of early warning signals (EWS) in the high-frequency variability of records from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP). Here, we re-evaluate the presence of EWS by employing indicators based on critical slowing down (CSD) and wavelet analysis and conduct a systematic methodological robustness test. Our findings reveal fewer significant EWS than previous studies, yet their numbers are significant for some of the indicators estimating changes in variability. Additionally, a comparison of different Greenland ice core records also shows consistency for these same EWS estimators preceding a small selection of events in records with high temporal resolution. While those indicators might represent changes in a common climate background, we cannot rule out that signals specific to the different ice core locations are captured. Nevertheless, the numbers of detected EWS are not significant for most ice core records as well as for estimators of correlation times when considered on their own, which were found to be less consistent. Based on these inconclusive results it is not possible to constrain mechanisms underlying the DO events. Instead, our results highlight the complexities and limitations of applying early warning signals to paleoclimate proxy data.

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???ViewItemFull_lblLanguages???: eng - English
 ???ViewItemFull_lblDates???: 2025-11-192025-11-19
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblIdentifiers???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_DOI???: 10.5194/esd-16-2035-2025
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???ViewItemFull_lblSourceTitle???: Earth System Dynamics
???ViewItemFull_lblSourceGenre???: ???ENUM_GENRE_JOURNAL???, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PUBLISHER???: Copernicus