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  Rescuing 1.5ºC: New evidence on highest possible ambition to deliver the Paris Agreement

Grant, N., Forner, C., Geffray, M.-C., Hare, B., Khan, Z., Welder, L., Tsekeris, D., Gong, C. C., Lécuyer, F., Müßel, J., Luderer, G. (2025): Rescuing 1.5ºC: New evidence on highest possible ambition to deliver the Paris Agreement, Berlin, Potsdam : Climate Analytics; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 66 p.

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33557 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33557_2
Genre: Report

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Rescuing1.5ºC.pdf (Publisher version), 3MB
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https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33557_1/component/file_33558/Rescuing1.5%C2%BAC.pdf
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https://climateanalytics.org/publications/rescuing-1-5c (Publisher version)
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 Creators:
Grant, Neil1, Author
Forner, Claudio1, Author
Geffray, Marie-Charlotte1, Author
Hare, Bill1, Author
Khan, Zarrar1, Author
Welder, Lara1, Author
Tsekeris, Dimitris1, Author
Gong, Chen Chris2, Author                 
Lécuyer, Fabrice2, Author           
Müßel, Jarusch2, Author                 
Luderer, Gunnar2, Author                 
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Due to insufficient action in recent years, the world will very likely reach 1.5°C of warming by the early 2030s. This means the world is headed towards a period of overshoot of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
The high risks and damages of overshooting 1.5°C have been well established by the scientific community. Policy needs to now focus on limiting both the magnitude and duration of overshoot to bring warming back below 1.5°C before 2100.
Overshooting 1.5°C does not mean we need change the Paris Agreement’s goals, but rather double down on their implementation. 1.5°C was chosen for good reason. Ten years on from Paris, the science is starker than ever – 1.5°C is planetary limit beyond which climate impacts escalate and risk triggering catastrophic tipping points.
Legally, morally and politically, the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit stands. It now acts as a North Star, guiding ambition and action for the world to avoid long-term overshoot of 1.5ºC and the catastrophic impacts this would entail.
This new study shows how to limit the overshoot of 1.5°C to the lowest possible level and return warming back well below 1.5°C by 2100 by looking at the highest possible ambition that could be undertaken by countries, starting in 2025.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2025-11-062025-11-06
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 66
 Publishing info: Berlin, Potsdam : Climate Analytics; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: Lab - Energy Transition
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Planetary Boundaries
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Model / method: REMIND
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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