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Abstract:
How to manage the compounding risks to national food security is a major issue of global concern. China, as the world’s largest producer of staple foods, has steadily strengthened its food security level, profoundly impacting the global food systems. In this review, we propose a systemic resilience framework (the ability to predict, absorb, rebound from, and adapt to disruptions) to analyse the evolution of China’s food security and explore its driving factors and multidimensional adaptations. China’s food security resilience has progressed through three distinct stages: low resilience (achieving basic sufficiency), medium resilience (achieving nutritional adequacy), and above medium resilience (embracing sustainability). Multidimensional synergistic adaptation—integrating agricultural, climatic, socioeconomic, and land-use strategies—has been key to these achievements. While agricultural advancements have significantly bolstered China’s food security, the growing pressures of climate change threaten to undermine these achievements. We project that China’s staple food self-sufficiency will remain above 98%, yet the overall food balance is expected to tighten under the combined pressures of dietary shifts and resource constraints. To better enhance the systemic resilience in China’s food security, China can buffer climate- and water-related shocks by expanding high-standard farmland, ease resource and demand pressures by enforcing anti-food-waste laws, strengthen soil and water resilience through nature-based solutions, and dampen trade volatility with integrated climate–market early-warning systems. Insights from China’s experience provide targeted levers for enhancing food-system resilience elsewhere.
