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Abstract:
The spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of widespread flood events and their prediction are topics of global concern. However, there is a noticeable absence of thorough investigations and analyses regarding the spatio-temporal characteristics, predictability of global widespread flood events, and the corresponding impact of climate indices. We bridge this gap by employing recurrence quantification analysis to evaluate the predictability potential of globally widespread flood events. We further examine how this potential correlates with highly synchronized widespread flood events in monsoon regions. Our results show that regions with high flood predictability potential (HFP) account for 20.09% of the world’s total land grid points. Specifically, 69.29% of the HFP grid points among them are located in eight monsoon regions. Highly synchronized and widespread flood events (HSEs) exhibit higher predictability potential in monsoon regions. We uncover that HSEs in the Australian–Maritime Continent Monsoon and Equatorial South America Monsoon regions are profoundly and intricately influenced by climate indices. Our findings establish a connection between the predictive capacity and the occurrence of widespread flood events, viewed through the lens of complex systems. This contributes a crucial reference point for understanding and forecasting future globally widespread flood events.
