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  Multidecadal Atlantic “Warming Hole” Heat Content Variations Are Caused by Ocean Heat Transport, Not by Surface Fluxes

Rahmstorf, S., Jendrkowiak, J., Gou, R., Cheng, L., Ruiz‐Angulo, A., Björnsson, H. (2026): Multidecadal Atlantic “Warming Hole” Heat Content Variations Are Caused by Ocean Heat Transport, Not by Surface Fluxes. - Geophysical Research Letters, 53, 11, e2025GL118383.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118383

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 Creators:
Rahmstorf, Stefan1, Author                 
Jendrkowiak, Jan1, Author           
Gou, Ruijian1, Author           
Cheng, Lijing2, Author
Ruiz‐Angulo, Angel2, Author
Björnsson, Halldór2, Author
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: The northern Atlantic south of Greenland and Iceland is the only part of the world which has cooled significantly since the 19th Century both in the atmosphere and ocean. The oceanic cooling is widely assumed to be a result of reduced ocean heat transport into this region. However, some studies have suggested it could be due to increased net heat loss at the sea surface. Here we use observation-based reanalysis data of ocean heat content and surface flux changes in this region to show that the observed cooling trend cannot be explained by surface heat flux changes, and that multidecadal heat content variations are generally larger and more tightly correlated with ocean heat transport than with surface heat flux variability.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2026-05-012026-05-282026-06-16
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 8
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1029/2025GL118383
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Research topic keyword: Oceans
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see locators/paper)
OATYPE: Gold - DEAL Wiley
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Title: Geophysical Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 53 (11) Sequence Number: e2025GL118383 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals182
Publisher: Wiley