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Abstract:
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual climate variability, yet the mechanisms limiting its long-lead predictability remain unclear. Here, we develop a physics-guided Deep Echo State Network (DESN) that operates on physically interpretable climate modes selected from the extended recharge oscillator (XRO) framework. DESN achieves skillful Niño 3.4 predictions up to 16–20 months ahead with minimal computational cost. Mechanistic experiments show that extended predictability arises from nonlinear coupling between warm water volume and inter-basin climate modes. Error-growth analysis further indicates a finite ENSO predictability horizon of approximately 30 months. These results demonstrate that physics-guided reservoir computing provides an efficient and interpretable framework for diagnosing and predicting ENSO at long lead times.
