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  WIND: Weather Inverse Diffusion for Zero-Shot Atmospheric Modeling

Aich, M., Fürst, A., Sestak, F., Ruiz-Gonzalez, C., Boers, N., Brandstetter, J. (2026 online): WIND: Weather Inverse Diffusion for Zero-Shot Atmospheric Modeling - Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, Forty-Third International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2026) (Seoul/South Korea 2026).
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2602.03924

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Aich_2026_2602.03924v2.pdf (Verlagsversion), 19MB
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Aich, Michael1, Autor           
Fürst, Andreas2, Autor
Sestak, Florian2, Autor
Ruiz-Gonzalez, Carlos2, Autor
Boers, Niklas1, Autor                 
Brandstetter, Johannes2, Autor
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Zusammenfassung: Deep learning has revolutionized weather forecasting, but many challenges remain, including climate modeling. Moreover, the current landscape remains fragmented: highly specialized models are typically trained individually for distinct tasks. To unify this landscape, we introduce WIND, a single pre-trained foundation model capable of replacing specialized baselines across a vast array of tasks. Crucially, in contrast to previous atmospheric foundation models, we achieve this without any task-specific fine-tuning. To learn a robust, task-agnostic prior of the atmosphere, we pre-train WIND with a self-supervised video reconstruction objective, utilizing an unconditional video diffusion model to iteratively reconstruct atmospheric dynamics from a noisy state. At inference, we frame diverse domain-specific problems strictly as inverse problems and solve them via posterior sampling. This unified approach allows us to tackle highly relevant weather and climate problems, including probabilistic forecasting, spatial and temporal downscaling, reconstruction of spatial fields from sparse observations and enforcing global dry air mass conservation. We further demonstrate how WIND can be applied to explore extreme weather events under prescribed out-of-distribution thermodynamic perturbations. By combining generative video modeling with inverse problem solving, WIND offers a computationally efficient alternative for AI-based atmospheric modeling.

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Sprache(n): eng - English
 Datum: 2026-03-03
 Publikationsstatus: Online veröffentlicht
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 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2602.03924
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see locators/paper)
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Working Group: Artificial Intelligence
Model / method: Machine Learning
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Forty-Third International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2026)
Veranstaltungsort: Seoul/South Korea
Start-/Enddatum: 2026-07-06 - 2026-07-11

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Titel: Proceedings of Machine Learning Research
Genre der Quelle: Konferenzband
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