Climate change impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and their 
implications for development

Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Adams, S.; Albrecht, Torsten; Baarsch, F.; Boit, Alice; Trujillo, N. C.; Cartsburg, M.; Coumou, Dim; Eden, Alexander; Fernandes, E.; Langerwisch, Fanny; Marcus, R.; Mengel, Matthias; Mira-Salama, D.; Perette, Mahé; Pereznieto, P.; Rammig, Anja; Reinhardt, Julia; Robinson, Alexander; Rocha, M.; Sakschewski, Boris; Schaeffer, M.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Serdeczny, O.; Thonicke, Kirsten

doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0854-6

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Climate change impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and their implications for development

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/persons/resource/Reyer

Reyer, Christopher P. O.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Adams, S.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Torsten.Albrecht

Albrecht, Torsten
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Baarsch, F.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Alice.Boit

Boit, Alice
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Trujillo, N. C.
External Organizations;

Cartsburg, M.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/coumou

Coumou, Dim
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/alexander.eden

Eden, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Fernandes, E.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Fanny.Langerwisch

Langerwisch, Fanny
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Marcus, R.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/matthias.mengel

Mengel, Matthias
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Mira-Salama, D.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/mahe.perette

Perette, Mahé
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Pereznieto, P.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Anja.Rammig

Rammig, Anja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/julia.reinhardt

Reinhardt, Julia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/robinson

Robinson, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Rocha, M.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Boris.Sakschewski

Sakschewski, Boris
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Schaeffer, M.
External Organizations;

Schleussner, C.-F.
External Organizations;

Serdeczny, O.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Kirsten.Thonicke

Thonicke, Kirsten
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Citation

Reyer, C. P. O., Adams, S., Albrecht, T., Baarsch, F., Boit, A., Trujillo, N. C., Cartsburg, M., Coumou, D., Eden, A., Fernandes, E., Langerwisch, F., Marcus, R., Mengel, M., Mira-Salama, D., Perette, M., Pereznieto, P., Rammig, A., Reinhardt, J., Robinson, A., Rocha, M., Sakschewski, B., Schaeffer, M., Schleussner, C.-F., Serdeczny, O., Thonicke, K. (2017): Climate change impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and their implications for development. - Regional Environmental Change, 17, 6, 1601-1621.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0854-6

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_20488

Abstract

This paper synthesizes what is known about the physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and their consequences for societies and development under different levels of global warming in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Projections show increasing mean temperatures by up to 4.5 °C compared to pre-industrial by the end of this century across LAC. Associated physical impacts include altered precipitation regimes, a strong increase in heat extremes, higher risks of droughts and increasing aridity. Moreover, the mean intensity of tropical cyclones, as well as the frequency of the most intense storms, is projected to increase while sea levels are expected to rise by ~0.2–1.1 mm depending on warming level and region. Tropical glacier volume is found to decrease substantially, with almost complete deglaciation under high warming levels. The much larger glaciers in the southern Andes are less sensitive to warming and shrink on slower timescales. Runoff is projected to be reduced in Central America, the southern Amazon basin and southernmost South America, while river discharge may increase in the western Amazon basin and in the Andes in the wet season. However, in many regions, there is uncertainty in the direction of these changes as a result of uncertain precipitation projections and differences in hydrological models. Climate change will also reduce agricultural yields, livestock and fisheries, although there may be opportunities such as increasing rice yield in several LAC countries or higher fish catch potential in the southernmost South American waters. Species range shifts threaten terrestrial biodiversity, and there is a substantial risk of Amazon rainforest degradation with continuing warming. Coral reefs are at increasing risk of annual bleaching events from 2040 to 2050 onwards irrespective of the climate scenario. These physical and biophysical climate change impacts challenge human livelihoods through, e.g., decreasing income from fisheries, agriculture or tourism. Furthermore, there is evidence that human health, coastal infrastructures and energy systems are also negatively affected. This paper concludes that LAC will be severely affected by climate change, even under lower levels of warming, due to the potential for impacts to occur simultaneously and compound one another.