Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

Kopp, R. E.; Kemp, A. C.; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, B. P.; Donnelly, J. P.; Gehrels, W. R.; Hay, C. C.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Morrow, E. D.; Rahmstorf, Stefan

doi:10.1073/pnas.1517056113

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Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

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Kopp, R. E.
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Kemp, A. C.
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Bittermann, Klaus
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Horton, B. P.
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Donnelly, J. P.
External Organizations;

Gehrels, W. R.
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Hay, C. C.
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Mitrovica, J. X.
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Morrow, E. D.
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/persons/resource/Stefan.Rahmstorf

Rahmstorf, Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1613396113
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Citation

Kopp, R. E., Kemp, A. C., Bittermann, K., Horton, B. P., Donnelly, J. P., Gehrels, W. R., Hay, C. C., Mitrovica, J. X., Morrow, E. D., Rahmstorf, S. (2016): Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era. - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 113, 11, E1434-E1441.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1517056113

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_20851

Abstract

We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report.