Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse




Journal Article

Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era


Kopp,  R. E.
External Organizations;

Kemp,  A. C.
External Organizations;


Bittermann,  Klaus
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Horton,  B. P.
External Organizations;

Donnelly,  J. P.
External Organizations;

Gehrels,  W. R.
External Organizations;

Hay,  C. C.
External Organizations;

Mitrovica,  J. X.
External Organizations;

Morrow,  E. D.
External Organizations;


Rahmstorf,  Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource

(Supplementary material)

Fulltext (public)

(Publisher version), 2MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available

Kopp, R. E., Kemp, A. C., Bittermann, K., Horton, B. P., Donnelly, J. P., Gehrels, W. R., Hay, C. C., Mitrovica, J. X., Morrow, E. D., Rahmstorf, S. (2016): Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era. - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 113, 11, E1434-E1441.

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_20851
We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report.