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Journal Article

Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

Authors
/persons/resource/Alice.Boit

Boit,  Alice
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Boris.Sakschewski

Sakschewski,  Boris
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/boysen

Boysen,  Lena
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Ana.Cano-Crespo

Cano-Crespo,  Ana
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Clement,  J.
External Organizations;

Garcia-Alaniz,  N.
External Organizations;

Kok,  K.
External Organizations;

Kolb,  M.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Fanny.Langerwisch

Langerwisch,  Fanny
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Anja.Rammig

Rammig,  Anja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Sachse,  R.
External Organizations;

Eupen,  M. van
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Werner.von.Bloh

von Bloh,  Werner
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Delphine.Clara.Zemp

Zemp,  Delphine Clara
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Kirsten.Thonicke

Thonicke,  Kirsten
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Citation

Boit, A., Sakschewski, B., Boysen, L., Cano-Crespo, A., Clement, J., Garcia-Alaniz, N., Kok, K., Kolb, M., Langerwisch, F., Rammig, A., Sachse, R., Eupen, M. v., von Bloh, W., Zemp, D. C., Thonicke, K. (2016): Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America. - Global Change Biology, 22, 11, 3689-3701.
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13355


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_21079
Abstract
Climate change and land‐use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental‐scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio‐economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5–6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land‐use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land‐use expansion is halted by the mid‐century. We suggest that constraining land‐use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate‐change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio‐economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.