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Journal Article

Mitigation strategies for greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and land-use change: Consequences for food prices

Authors
/persons/resource/stevanovic

Stevanović,  Miodrag
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp,  Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky,  Benjamin Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder,  Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller,  Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Isabelle.Weindl

Weindl,  Isabelle
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jan.Dietrich

Dietrich,  Jan Philipp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen,  Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/ulrich.kreidenweis

Kreidenweis,  Ulrich
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Rolinski

Rolinski,  Susanne
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/anne.biewald

Biewald,  Anne
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/xiaoxi.wang

Wang,  Xiaoxi
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Citation

Stevanović, M., Popp, A., Bodirsky, B. L., Humpenöder, F., Müller, C., Weindl, I., Dietrich, J. P., Lotze-Campen, H., Kreidenweis, U., Rolinski, S., Biewald, A., Wang, X. (2017): Mitigation strategies for greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and land-use change: Consequences for food prices. - Environmental Science and Technology, 51, 1, 365-374.
https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b04291


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_21245
Abstract
The land use sector of agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) plays a central role in ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. Yet, mitigation policies in agriculture may be in conflict with food security related targets. Using a global agro–economic model, we analyze the impacts on food prices under mitigation policies targeting either incentives for producers (e.g., through taxes) or consumer preferences (e.g., through education programs). Despite having a similar reduction potential of 43–44% in 2100, the two types of policy instruments result in opposite outcomes for food prices. Incentive-based mitigation, such as protecting carbon-rich forests or adopting low-emission production techniques, increase land scarcity and production costs and thereby food prices. Preference-based mitigation, such as reduced household waste or lower consumption of animal-based products, decreases land scarcity, prevents emissions leakage, and concentrates production on the most productive sites and consequently lowers food prices. Whereas agricultural emissions are further abated in the combination of these mitigation measures, the synergy of strategies fails to substantially lower food prices. Additionally, we demonstrate that the efficiency of agricultural emission abatement is stable across a range of greenhouse-gas (GHG) tax levels, while resulting food prices exhibit a disproportionally larger spread.