How do inputs and weather drive wheat yield volatility? The example of Germany

Albers, H.; Gornott, Christoph; Hüttel, S.

doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.05.001

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How do inputs and weather drive wheat yield volatility? The example of Germany

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Albers, H.
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Gornott, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Hüttel, S.
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Albers, H., Gornott, C., Hüttel, S. (2017): How do inputs and weather drive wheat yield volatility? The example of Germany. - Food Policy, 70, 50-61.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.05.001

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_21776

Abstract

Increases in cereals production risk are commonly related to increases in weather risk. We analyze weather-induced changes in wheat yield volatility as a systemic weather risk in Germany. We disentangle, however, the relative impacts of inputs and weather on regional yield volatility. For this purpose we augment a production function with phenologically aggregated weather variables. Increasing volatility can be traced back to weather changes only in some regions. On average, inputs explain 49% of the total actual wheat yield volatility, while weather explains 43%. Models with only weather variables deliver biased but reasonable approximations for climate impact research.