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Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050

Urheber*innen

Meijl,  H. van
External Organizations;

Havlik,  P.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen,  Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Stehfest,  E.
External Organizations;

Witzke,  P.
External Organizations;

Perez-Dominguez,  I.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky,  Benjamin Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Dijk,  M. van
External Organizations;

Doelman,  J.
External Organizations;

Fellmann,  T.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder,  Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Koopman,  J. F. L.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller,  Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp,  Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Tabeau,  A.
External Organizations;

Valin,  H.
External Organizations;

Zeist,  W.-J. van
External Organizations;

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8092oa.pdf
(Verlagsversion), 5MB

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Zitation

Meijl, H. v., Havlik, P., Lotze-Campen, H., Stehfest, E., Witzke, P., Perez-Dominguez, I., Bodirsky, B. L., Dijk, M. v., Doelman, J., Fellmann, T., Humpenöder, F., Koopman, J. F. L., Müller, C., Popp, A., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., Zeist, W.-J.-v. (2018): Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050. - Environmental Research Letters, 13, 6, 064021.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabdc4


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22448
Zusammenfassung
Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 °C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 °C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed demand, including substitution across individual commodities, and endogenous technological change.