Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

Su, B.; Huang, J.; Fischer, T.; Wang, Y.; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Zhai, J.; Sun, H.; Wang, A.; Zeng, X.; Wang, G.; Tao, H.; Gemmer, M.; Li, X.; Jiang, T.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1802129115

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Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

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Su, B.
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Huang, J.
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Fischer, T.
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Wang, Y.
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Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Zhai, J.
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Sun, H.
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Wang, A.
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Zeng, X.
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Wang, G.
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Tao, H.
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Gemmer, M.
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Li, X.
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Jiang, T.
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Su, B., Huang, J., Fischer, T., Wang, Y., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Zhai, J., Sun, H., Wang, A., Zeng, X., Wang, G., Tao, H., Gemmer, M., Li, X., Jiang, T. (2018): Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming. - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 115, 42, 10600-10605.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1802129115

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We project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and “intensity-loss rate” function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020–2039 and 2040–2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 °C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986–2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006–2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 °C warming.