The 'pause' in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to 
observations

Lewandowsky, S.; Cowtan, K.; Risbey, J. S.; Mann, M. E.; Steinmann, B. A.; Oreskes, N.; Rahmstorf, Stefan

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372

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The 'pause' in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations

Authors

Lewandowsky, S.
External Organizations;

Cowtan, K.
External Organizations;

Risbey, J. S.
External Organizations;

Mann, M. E.
External Organizations;

Steinmann, B. A.
External Organizations;

Oreskes, N.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Stefan.Rahmstorf

Rahmstorf, Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafbb7
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Citation

Lewandowsky, S., Cowtan, K., Risbey, J. S., Mann, M. E., Steinmann, B. A., Oreskes, N., Rahmstorf, S. (2018): The 'pause' in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations. - Environmental Research Letters, 13, 12, 123007.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22867

Abstract

We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.