Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in 
CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the 
century

Gidden, M. J.; Riahi, K.; Smith, S. J.; Fujimori, S.; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar; Vuuren, D. P. van; Berg, M. van den; Feng, L.; Klein, D.; Calvin, K.; Doelman, J. C.; Frank, S.; Fricko, O.; Harmsen, M.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Hilaire, J.; Hoesly, R.; Horing, J.; Popp, Alexander; Stehfest, E.; Takahashi, K.

doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019

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Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century

Authors

Gidden, M. J.
External Organizations;

Riahi, K.
External Organizations;

Smith, S. J.
External Organizations;

Fujimori, S.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer, Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler, Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Vuuren, D. P. van
External Organizations;

Berg, M. van den
External Organizations;

Feng, L.
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Klein, D.
External Organizations;

Calvin, K.
External Organizations;

Doelman, J. C.
External Organizations;

Frank, S.
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Fricko, O.
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Harmsen, M.
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Hasegawa, T.
External Organizations;

Havlik, P.
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Hilaire, J.
External Organizations;

Hoesly, R.
External Organizations;

Horing, J.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Stehfest, E.
External Organizations;

Takahashi, K.
External Organizations;

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Citation

Gidden, M. J., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Fujimori, S., Luderer, G., Kriegler, E., Vuuren, D. P. v., Berg, M. v. d., Feng, L., Klein, D., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Harmsen, M., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hilaire, J., Hoesly, R., Horing, J., Popp, A., Stehfest, E., Takahashi, K. (2019): Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century. - Geoscientific Model Development, 12, 4, 1443-1475.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22965

Abstract

We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions species and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emissions source spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal for exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios is bounded on the low end by a 1.9 W m−2 scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with end-of-century temperatures well below 2 ∘C, and on the high end by a 8.5 W m−2 scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 ∘C over pre-industrial levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.