State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

Schewe, Jacob; Gosling, S. N.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Zhao, F.; Ciais, P.; Elliott, J.; Francois, L.; Huber, V.; Lotze, H. K.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Vliet, M. T. H. van; Vautard, R.; Wada, Y.; Breuer, L.; Büchner, Matthias; Carozza, D. A.; Chang, J.; Coll, M.; Deryng, D.; Wit, A. de; Eddy, T. D.; Folberth, C.; Frieler, Katja; Friend, A. D.; Gerten, Dieter; Gudmundsson, L.; Hanasaki, N.; Ito, A.; Khabarov, N.; Kim, H.; Lawrence, P.; Morfopoulos, C.; Müller, Christoph; Müller Schmied, H.; Orth, R.; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pokhrel, Y.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Sakurai, G.; Satoh, Y.; Schmid, E.; Stacke, T.; Steenbeek, J.; Steinkamp, J.; Tang, Q.; Tian, H.; Tittensor, D. P.; Volkholz, Jan; Wang, X.; Warszawski, Lila

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6

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Journal Article

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

Authors

/persons/resource/Schewe

Schewe, Jacob
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Gosling, S. N.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Reyer

Reyer, Christopher P. O.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Zhao, F.
External Organizations;

Ciais, P.
External Organizations;

Elliott, J.
External Organizations;

Francois, L.
External Organizations;

Huber, V.
External Organizations;

Lotze, H. K.
External Organizations;

Seneviratne, S. I.
External Organizations;

Vliet, M. T. H. van
External Organizations;

Vautard, R.
External Organizations;

Wada, Y.
External Organizations;

Breuer, L.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Matthias.Buechner

Büchner, Matthias
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Carozza, D. A.
External Organizations;

Chang, J.
External Organizations;

Coll, M.
External Organizations;

Deryng, D.
External Organizations;

Wit, A. de
External Organizations;

Eddy, T. D.
External Organizations;

Folberth, C.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Katja.Frieler

Frieler, Katja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Friend, A. D.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Dieter.Gerten

Gerten, Dieter
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Gudmundsson, L.
External Organizations;

Hanasaki, N.
External Organizations;

Ito, A.
External Organizations;

Khabarov, N.
External Organizations;

Kim, H.
External Organizations;

Lawrence, P.
External Organizations;

Morfopoulos, C.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Müller Schmied, H.
External Organizations;

Orth, R.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/sebastian.ostberg

Ostberg, Sebastian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Pokhrel, Y.
External Organizations;

Pugh, T. A. M.
External Organizations;

Sakurai, G.
External Organizations;

Satoh, Y.
External Organizations;

Schmid, E.
External Organizations;

Stacke, T.
External Organizations;

Steenbeek, J.
External Organizations;

Steinkamp, J.
External Organizations;

Tang, Q.
External Organizations;

Tian, H.
External Organizations;

Tittensor, D. P.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Jan.Volkholz

Volkholz, Jan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Wang, X.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/lila.warszawski

Warszawski, Lila
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Citation

Schewe, J., Gosling, S. N., Reyer, C. P. O., Zhao, F., Ciais, P., Elliott, J., Francois, L., Huber, V., Lotze, H. K., Seneviratne, S. I., Vliet, M. T. H. v., Vautard, R., Wada, Y., Breuer, L., Büchner, M., Carozza, D. A., Chang, J., Coll, M., Deryng, D., Wit, A. d., Eddy, T. D., Folberth, C., Frieler, K., Friend, A. D., Gerten, D., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Ito, A., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Lawrence, P., Morfopoulos, C., Müller, C., Müller Schmied, H., Orth, R., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y., Pugh, T. A. M., Sakurai, G., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Steenbeek, J., Steinkamp, J., Tang, Q., Tian, H., Tittensor, D. P., Volkholz, J., Wang, X., Warszawski, L. (2019): State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes. - Nature Communications, 10, 1005.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22985

Abstract

Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.