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Journal Article

Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability

Authors
/persons/resource/Katja.Frieler

Frieler,  Katja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/schauberger

Schauberger,  Bernhard
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Arneth,  Almut
External Organizations;

Balkovič,  Juraj
External Organizations;

Chryssanthacopoulos,  James
External Organizations;

Deryng,  Delphine
External Organizations;

Elliott,  Joshua
External Organizations;

Folberth,  Christian
External Organizations;

Khabarov,  Nikolay
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller,  Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Olin,  Stefan
External Organizations;

Pugh,  Thomas A. M.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Sibyll.Schaphoff

Schaphoff,  Sibyll
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Schewe

Schewe,  Jacob
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Schmid,  Erwin
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/lila.warszawski

Warszawski,  Lila
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Levermann

Levermann,  Anders
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Fulltext (public)

7629oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 2MB

Supplementary Material (public)
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Citation

Frieler, K., Schauberger, B., Arneth, A., Balkovič, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Folberth, C., Khabarov, N., Müller, C., Olin, S., Pugh, T. A. M., Schaphoff, S., Schewe, J., Schmid, E., Warszawski, L., Levermann, A. (2017): Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability. - Earth's Future, 5, 6, 605-616.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000525


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23978
Abstract
Year‐to‐year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather‐induced crop‐yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here, we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state‐of‐the‐art, process‐based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the United States. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop‐yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process‐based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also provide options to represent human‐management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.