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Journal Article

Macroeconomic drivers of baseline scenarios in dynamic CGE models: review and guidelines proposal

Authors

Foure,  Jean
External Organizations;

Aguiar,  Angel
External Organizations;

Bibas,  Ruben
External Organizations;

Chateau,  Jean
External Organizations;

Fujimori,  Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Lefevre,  Julien
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/marian.leimbach

Leimbach,  Marian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Rey-Los-Santos,  Luis
External Organizations;

Valin,  Hugo
External Organizations;

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107
(Publisher version), 61KB

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Citation

Foure, J., Aguiar, A., Bibas, R., Chateau, J., Fujimori, S., Lefevre, J., Leimbach, M., Rey-Los-Santos, L., Valin, H. (2020): Macroeconomic drivers of baseline scenarios in dynamic CGE models: review and guidelines proposal. - Journal of Global Economic Analysis, 5, 1, 28-62.
https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.050102AF


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24245
Abstract
For dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, long-term baseline construction is key and depends on the applied methods and the sources of projections considered. For dynamic CGE models, baseline assumptions and base data are both important determinants of results. This paper reviews the assumptions made by 24 modeling teams on baseline macroeconomic drivers, understood as factor accumulation and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. We critically review the various methods, identifying state-of-the-art practices and propose simple guidelines, particularly focusing on consistency between data sources and models, which is intended to help dynamic CGE modelers build their own baselines.