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Journal Article

Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs

Authors

Mitter,  Hermine
External Organizations;

Techen,  Anja-Kristine
External Organizations;

Sinabell,  Franz
External Organizations;

Helming,  Katharina
External Organizations;

Schmid,  Erwin
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky,  Benjamin Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Holman,  Ian
External Organizations;

Kok,  Kasper
External Organizations;

Lehtonen,  Heikki
External Organizations;

Leip,  Adrian
External Organizations;

Le Mouël,  Chantal
External Organizations;

Mathijs,  Erik
External Organizations;

Mehdi,  Bano
External Organizations;

Mittenzwei,  Klaus
External Organizations;

Mora,  Olivier
External Organizations;

Øistad,  Knut
External Organizations;

Øygarden,  Lillian
External Organizations;

Priess,  Jörg
External Organizations;

Reidsma,  Pytrik
External Organizations;

Schaldach,  Rüdiger
External Organizations;

Schönhart,  Martin
External Organizations;

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Fulltext (public)

24422oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 2MB

Supplementary Material (public)
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Citation

Mitter, H., Techen, A.-K., Sinabell, F., Helming, K., Schmid, E., Bodirsky, B. L., Holman, I., Kok, K., Lehtonen, H., Leip, A., Le Mouël, C., Mathijs, E., Mehdi, B., Mittenzwei, K., Mora, O., Øistad, K., Øygarden, L., Priess, J., Reidsma, P., Schaldach, R., Schönhart, M. (2020): Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs. - Global Environmental Change, 65, 102159.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102159


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24422
Abstract
Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios – the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.