Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse




Journal Article

How US withdrawal might influence cooperation under the Paris climate agreement


Sælen,  Håkon
External Organizations;

Hovi,  Jon
External Organizations;


Sprinz,  Detlef F.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Underdal,  Arild
External Organizations;

External Ressource
No external resources are shared
Fulltext (public)
There are no public fulltexts stored in PIKpublic
Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available

Sælen, H., Hovi, J., Sprinz, D. F., Underdal, A. (2020): How US withdrawal might influence cooperation under the Paris climate agreement. - Environmental Science and Policy, 108, 121-132.

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24522
Using a novel agent-based model, we study how US withdrawal might influence the political process established by the Paris Agreement, and hence the prospects for reaching the collective goal to limit warming below 2°C. Our model enables us to analyze to what extent reaching this goal despite US withdrawal would place more stringent requirements on other core elements of the Paris cooperation process. We find, first, that the effect of a US withdrawal depends critically on the extent to which member countries reciprocate others’ promises and contributions. Second, while the 2°C goal will likely be reached only under a very small set of conditions in any event, even temporary US withdrawal will further narrow this set significantly. Reaching this goal will then require other countries to step up their ambition at the first opportunity and to comply nearly 100% with their pledges, while maintaining high confidence in the Paris Agreement's institutions. Third, although a US withdrawal will first primarily affect the United States' own emissions, it will eventually prove even more detrimental to other countries' emissions.