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Abstract

Atlantic hurricane activity varies substantially from year to year and so do the associated damages. Longer-term forecasting of hurricane risks is a key element to reduce damages and societal vulnerabilities by enabling targeted disaster preparedness and risk reduction measures. While the immediate synoptic drivers of tropical cyclone formation and intensification are increasingly well understood, precursors of hurricane activity on longer time-horizons are still not well established. Here we use a causal network-based algorithm to identify physically motivated late-spring precursors of seasonal 15Atlantic hurricane activity. Based on these precursors we construct seasonal forecast models with competitive skill compared to operational forecasts. We present a skillful model to forecast July to October cyclone activity at the beginning of April.Earlier seasonal hurricane forecasting provides a multi-month lead time to implement more effective disaster risk reduction measures. Our approach also highlights the potential of applying causal effects network analysis in seasonal forecasting