Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project 
(ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Tebaldi, Claudia; Debeire, Kevin; Eyring, Veronika; Fischer, Erich; Fyfe, John; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Knutti, Reto; Lowe, Jason; O'Neil, Brian; Sanderson, Benjamin; van Vuuren, Detlef; Riahi, Keywan; Meinshausen, Malte; Nicholls, Zebedee; Hurtt, George; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Meehl, Gerald; Moss, Richard; Bauer, Susanne E.; Boucher, Olivier; Brovkin, Victor; Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Gualdi, Silvio; Guo, Huan; John, Jasmin G.; Kharin, Slava; Koshiro, Tsuyoshi; Ma, Libin; Olivié, Dirk; Panickal, Swapna; Qiao, Fangli; Rosenbloom, Nan; Schupfner, Martin; Seferian, Roland; Song, Zhenya; Steger, Christian; Sellar, Alistair; Swart, Neil; Tachiiri, Kaoru; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Voldoire, Aurore; Volodin, Evgeny; Wyser, Klaus; Xin, Xiagoe; Xinyao, Rong; Yang, Shuting; Yu, Yongqiang; Ziehn, Tilo

doi:10.5194/esd-12-253-2021

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Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Urheber*innen

Tebaldi, Claudia
External Organizations;

Debeire, Kevin
External Organizations;

Eyring, Veronika
External Organizations;

Fischer, Erich
External Organizations;

Fyfe, John
External Organizations;

Friedlingstein, Pierre
External Organizations;

Knutti, Reto
External Organizations;

Lowe, Jason
External Organizations;

O'Neil, Brian
External Organizations;

Sanderson, Benjamin
External Organizations;

van Vuuren, Detlef
External Organizations;

Riahi, Keywan
External Organizations;

Meinshausen, Malte
External Organizations;

Nicholls, Zebedee
External Organizations;

Hurtt, George
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler, Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Lamarque, Jean-Francois
External Organizations;

Meehl, Gerald
External Organizations;

Moss, Richard
External Organizations;

Bauer, Susanne E.
External Organizations;

Boucher, Olivier
External Organizations;

Brovkin, Victor
External Organizations;

Golaz, Jean-Christophe
External Organizations;

Gualdi, Silvio
External Organizations;

Guo, Huan
External Organizations;

John, Jasmin G.
External Organizations;

Kharin, Slava
External Organizations;

Koshiro, Tsuyoshi
External Organizations;

Ma, Libin
External Organizations;

Olivié, Dirk
External Organizations;

Panickal, Swapna
External Organizations;

Qiao, Fangli
External Organizations;

Rosenbloom, Nan
External Organizations;

Schupfner, Martin
External Organizations;

Seferian, Roland
External Organizations;

Song, Zhenya
External Organizations;

Steger, Christian
External Organizations;

Sellar, Alistair
External Organizations;

Swart, Neil
External Organizations;

Tachiiri, Kaoru
External Organizations;

Tatebe, Hiroaki
External Organizations;

Voldoire, Aurore
External Organizations;

Volodin, Evgeny
External Organizations;

Wyser, Klaus
External Organizations;

Xin, Xiagoe
External Organizations;

Xinyao, Rong
External Organizations;

Yang, Shuting
External Organizations;

Yu, Yongqiang
External Organizations;

Ziehn, Tilo
External Organizations;

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Zitation

Tebaldi, C., Debeire, K., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J., Friedlingstein, P., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., O'Neil, B., Sanderson, B., van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K., Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z., Hurtt, G., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Meehl, G., Moss, R., Bauer, S. E., Boucher, O., Brovkin, V., Golaz, J.-C., Gualdi, S., Guo, H., John, J. G., Kharin, S., Koshiro, T., Ma, L., Olivié, D., Panickal, S., Qiao, F., Rosenbloom, N., Schupfner, M., Seferian, R., Song, Z., Steger, C., Sellar, A., Swart, N., Tachiiri, K., Tatebe, H., Voldoire, A., Volodin, E., Wyser, K., Xin, X., Xinyao, R., Yang, S., Yu, Y., Ziehn, T. (2021): Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6. - Earth System Dynamics, 12, 1, 253-293.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021

Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25288

Zusammenfassung

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the primary future climate projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models for concentration driven simulations. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century encompassing the Tier 1 experiments (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by 1.15 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5–95 % envelope of the highest scenario, SSP5-8.5. This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and to higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensembles' spread, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. The same experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century, a new result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP, but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades in mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome in terms of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same level as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4. Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering 20–28 years from present. 2 °C of warming is reached as early as the late '30s by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5, but as late as the late '50s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered, 5 °C, is reached only by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5, and not until the mid-90s.