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Climate Change and Potential distribution of Potato (Solanum Tuberosum) Crop Cultivation in Pakistan Using Maxent

Urheber*innen

Khalil,  Tayyaba
External Organizations;

Asad,  Saeed A.
External Organizations;

Khubaib,  Nusaiba
External Organizations;

Baig,  Ayesha
External Organizations;

Atif,  Salman
External Organizations;

Umar,  Muhammad
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Juergen.Kropp

Kropp,  Jürgen P.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/prajal.pradhan

Pradhan,  Prajal
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Baig,  Sofia
External Organizations;

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Volltexte (frei zugänglich)

25539oa.pdf
(Verlagsversion), 822KB

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Zitation

Khalil, T., Asad, S. A., Khubaib, N., Baig, A., Atif, S., Umar, M., Kropp, J. P., Pradhan, P., Baig, S. (2021): Climate Change and Potential distribution of Potato (Solanum Tuberosum) Crop Cultivation in Pakistan Using Maxent. - AIMS Agriculture and Food, 6, 2, 663-676.
https://doi.org/10.3934/agrfood.2021039


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25539
Zusammenfassung
The impacts of climate change are projected to become more intense and frequent. One of the indirect impacts of climate change is food insecurity. Agriculture in Pakistan, measured fourth best in the world, is already experiencing visible adverse impacts of climate change. Among many other food sources, potato crop remains one of the food security crops for developing nations. Potatoes are widely cultivated in Pakistan. To assess the impact of climate change on potato crop in Pakistan, it is imperative to analyze its distribution under future climate change scenarios using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Maximum Entropy Model is used in this study to predict the spatial distribution of Potato in 2070 using two CMIP5 models for two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). 19 Bioclimatic variables are incorporated along with other contributing variables like soil type, elevation and irrigation. The results indicate slight decrease in the suitable area for potato growth in RCP 4.5 and drastic decrease in suitable area in RCP 8.5 for both models. The performance evaluation of the model is based on AUC. AUC value of 0.85 suggests the fitness of the model and thus, it is applicable to predict the suitable climate for potato production in Pakistan. Sustainable potato cultivation is needed to increase productivity in developing countries while promoting better resource management and optimization.