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Journal Article

Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals

Authors
/persons/resource/Bertram

Bertram,  Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Riahi,  Keywan
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/hilaire

Hilaire,  Jérôme
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Bosetti,  Valentina
External Organizations;

Drouet,  Laurent
External Organizations;

Fricko,  Oliver
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Aman.Malik

Malik,  Aman
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Pupo Nogueira,  Larissa
External Organizations;

van der Zwaan,  Bob
External Organizations;

van Ruijven,  Bas
External Organizations;

van Vuuren,  Detlef P.
External Organizations;

Weitzel,  Matthias
External Organizations;

Dalla Longa,  Francesco
External Organizations;

de Boer,  Harmen-Sytze
External Organizations;

Emmerling,  Johannes
External Organizations;

Fosse,  Florian
External Organizations;

Fragkiadakis,  Kostas
External Organizations;

Harmsen,  Mathijs
External Organizations;

Keramidas,  Kimon
External Organizations;

Kishimoto,  Paul Natsuo
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler,  Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Krey,  Volker
External Organizations;

Paroussos,  Leonidas
External Organizations;

Saygin,  Deger
External Organizations;

Vrontisi,  Zoi
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer,  Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource
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Fulltext (public)

25674oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 2MB

Supplementary Material (public)
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Citation

Bertram, C., Riahi, K., Hilaire, J., Bosetti, V., Drouet, L., Fricko, O., Malik, A., Pupo Nogueira, L., van der Zwaan, B., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D. P., Weitzel, M., Dalla Longa, F., de Boer, H.-S., Emmerling, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Harmsen, M., Keramidas, K., Kishimoto, P. N., Kriegler, E., Krey, V., Paroussos, L., Saygin, D., Vrontisi, Z., Luderer, G. (2021): Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals. - Environmental Research Letters, 16, 7, 074020.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac09ae


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25674
Abstract
The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2°C, it also calls for "making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions". Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models (IAMs). This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set of assumptions. We find that ambitious immediate action allows for limiting median warming outcomes to well below 2°C in all models. By contrast, current nationally determined contributions for 2030 would add around 0.2°C of peak warming, leading to an unavoidable transgression of 1.5°C in all models, and 2°C in some. In contrast to the incremental changes as foreseen by current plans, ambitious peak warming targets require decisive emission cuts until 2030, with the most substantial contribution to decarbonization coming from the power sector. Therefore, investments into low-carbon power generation need to increase beyond current levels to meet the Paris goals, especially for solar and wind technologies and related system enhancements for electricity transmission, distribution and storage. In scenarios limiting peak warming to below 2°C, while coal is phased out quickly, oil and gas are still being used significantly until 2030, albeit at lower than current levels. This requires continued investments into existing oil and gas infrastructure, but investments into new fields in such scenarios might not be needed. The results show that credible and effective policy action is essential for ensuring efficient allocation of investments aligned with medium-term climate targets.