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Analysis of a bistable climate toy model with physics-based machine learning methods

Urheber*innen
/persons/resource/gelbrecht

Gelbrecht,  Maximilian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Lucarini,  Valerio
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Niklas.Boers

Boers,  Niklas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Juergen.Kurths

Kurths,  Jürgen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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25715oa.pdf
(Verlagsversion), 981KB

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Zitation

Gelbrecht, M., Lucarini, V., Boers, N., Kurths, J. (2021): Analysis of a bistable climate toy model with physics-based machine learning methods. - European Physical Journal - Special Topics, 230, 13-15, 3121-3131.
https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00175-0


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25715
Zusammenfassung
We propose a comprehensive framework able to address both the predictability of the first and of the second kind for high-dimensional chaotic models. For this purpose, we analyse the properties of a newly introduced multistable climate toy model constructed by coupling the Lorenz ’96 model with a zero-dimensional energy balance model. First, the attractors of the system are identified with Monte Carlo Basin Bifurcation Analysis. Additionally, we are able to detect the Melancholia state separating the two attractors. Then, Neural Ordinary Differential Equations are applied to predict the future state of the system in both of the identified attractors.