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Journal Article

Early Warning of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phase Transition Using Complex Network Analysis


Lu,  Zhenghui
External Organizations;

Yuan,  Naiming
External Organizations;

Yang,  Qing
External Organizations;

Ma,  Zhuguo
External Organizations;


Kurths,  Jürgen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Lu, Z., Yuan, N., Yang, Q., Ma, Z., Kurths, J. (2021): Early Warning of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phase Transition Using Complex Network Analysis. - Geophysical Research Letters, 48, 7, e2020GL091674.

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25830
Obtaining an efficient prediction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase transition is a worldwide challenge. Here, we employed the climate network analysis to uncover early warning signals prior to a PDO phase transition. This way an examination of cooperative behavior in the PDO region revealed an enhanced signal that propagated from the western Pacific to the northwest coast of North America. The detection of this signal corresponds very well to the time when the upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial northwestern tropical Pacific reaches a threshold, in which case a PDO phase transition may be expected with the arising of the next El Ni urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0001o/La Niurn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0002 a event. The objectively detected early warning signal successfully forewarned all the six PDO phase transitions from the 1890–2000, and also underpinned the possible PDO phase transition around 2015, which may be triggered by the strong El Niurn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0003o event in 2015–2016.