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Journal Article

Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Authors

Grant,  Luke
External Organizations;

Vanderkelen,  Inne
External Organizations;

Gudmundsson,  Lukas
External Organizations;

Tan,  Zeli
External Organizations;

Perroud,  Marjorie
External Organizations;

Stepanenko,  Victor M.
External Organizations;

Debolskiy,  Andrey V.
External Organizations;

Droppers,  Bram
External Organizations;

Janssen,  Annette B. G.
External Organizations;

Woolway,  R. Iestyn
External Organizations;

Choulga,  Margarita
External Organizations;

Balsamo,  Gianpaolo
External Organizations;

Kirillin,  Georgiy
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Schewe

Schewe,  Jacob
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/fangzhao

Zhao,  Fang
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/delvalle

Vega del Valle,  Iliusi
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Golub,  Malgorzata
External Organizations;

Pierson,  Don
External Organizations;

Marcé,  Rafael
External Organizations;

Seneviratne,  Sonia I.
External Organizations;

Thiery,  Wim
External Organizations;

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Citation

Grant, L., Vanderkelen, I., Gudmundsson, L., Tan, Z., Perroud, M., Stepanenko, V. M., Debolskiy, A. V., Droppers, B., Janssen, A. B. G., Woolway, R. I., Choulga, M., Balsamo, G., Kirillin, G., Schewe, J., Zhao, F., Vega del Valle, I., Golub, M., Pierson, D., Marcé, R., Seneviratne, S. I., Thiery, W. (2021): Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing. - Nature Geoscience, 14, 11, 849-854.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00833-x


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26095
Abstract
Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °Cair–1, –0.033 m °Cair–1 and –9.7 d °Cair–1, respectively). These impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide.