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Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Urheber*innen

Drouet,  Laurent
External Organizations;

Bosetti,  Valentina
External Organizations;

Padoan,  Simone A.
External Organizations;

Aleluia Reis,  Lara
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Bertram

Bertram,  Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Dalla Longa,  Francesco
External Organizations;

Després,  Jacques
External Organizations;

Emmerling,  Johannes
External Organizations;

Fosse,  Florian
External Organizations;

Fragkiadakis,  Kostas
External Organizations;

Frank,  Stefan
External Organizations;

Fricko,  Oliver
External Organizations;

Fujimori,  Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Harmsen,  Mathijs
External Organizations;

Krey,  Volker
External Organizations;

Oshiro,  Ken
External Organizations;

Nogueira,  Larissa P.
External Organizations;

Paroussos,  Leonidas
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/franziska.piontek

Piontek,  Franziska
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Riahi,  Keywan
External Organizations;

Rochedo,  Pedro R. R.
External Organizations;

Schaeffer,  Roberto
External Organizations;

Takakura,  Jun’ya
External Organizations;

van der Wijst,  Kaj-Ivar
External Organizations;

van der Zwaan,  Bob
External Organizations;

van Vuuren,  Detlef
External Organizations;

Vrontisi,  Zoi
External Organizations;

Weitzel,  Matthias
External Organizations;

Zakeri,  Behnam
External Organizations;

Tavoni,  Massimo
External Organizations;

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Zitation

Drouet, L., Bosetti, V., Padoan, S. A., Aleluia Reis, L., Bertram, C., Dalla Longa, F., Després, J., Emmerling, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Harmsen, M., Krey, V., Oshiro, K., Nogueira, L. P., Paroussos, L., Piontek, F., Riahi, K., Rochedo, P. R. R., Schaeffer, R., Takakura, J., van der Wijst, K.-I., van der Zwaan, B., van Vuuren, D., Vrontisi, Z., Weitzel, M., Zakeri, B., Tavoni, M. (2021): Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change. - Nature Climate Change, 11, 12, 1070-1076.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01218-z


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26337
Zusammenfassung
Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We explored both physical and macroeconomic impacts, including persistent and non-persistent climate impacts. We found that temperature overshooting affects the likelihood of many critical physical impacts, such as those associated with heat extremes. Limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets where larger overshoots arise as a way to lower short-term mitigation costs. We also showed how, after mid-century, overshoot leads to both higher mitigation costs and economic losses from the additional impacts. The study highlights the need to include climate risk analysis in low-carbon pathways.