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Journal Article

Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Authors

Payne,  Antony J.
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Nowicki,  Sophie
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Abe‐Ouchi,  Ayako
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Agosta,  Cécile
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Alexander,  Patrick
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/persons/resource/Torsten.Albrecht

Albrecht,  Torsten
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Asay‐Davis,  Xylar
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Aschwanden,  Andy
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Barthel,  Alice
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Bracegirdle,  Thomas J.
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/persons/resource/Reinhard.Calov

Calov,  Reinhard
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Chambers,  Christopher
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Choi,  Youngmin
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Cullather,  Richard
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Cuzzone,  Joshua
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Dumas,  Christophe
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Edwards,  Tamsin L.
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Felikson,  Denis
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Fettweis,  Xavier
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Galton‐Fenzi,  Benjamin K.
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Goelzer,  Heiko
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Gladstone,  Rupert
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Golledge,  Nicholas R.
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Gregory,  Jonathan M.
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Greve,  Ralf
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Hattermann,  Tore
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Hoffman,  Matthew J.
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Humbert,  Angelika
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Huybrechts,  Philippe
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Jourdain,  Nicolas C.
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Kleiner,  Thomas
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Munneke,  Peter Kuipers
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Larour,  Eric
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Le clec'h,  Sebastien
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Lee,  Victoria
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Leguy,  Gunter
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Lipscomb,  William H.
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Little,  Christopher M.
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Lowry,  Daniel P.
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Morlighem,  Mathieu
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Nias,  Isabel
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Pattyn,  Frank
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Pelle,  Tyler
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Price,  Stephen F.
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Quiquet,  Aurélien
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/persons/resource/Ronja.Reese

Reese,  Ronja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Rückamp,  Martin
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Schlegel,  Nicole‐Jeanne
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Seroussi,  Hélène
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Shepherd,  Andrew
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Simon,  Erika
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Slater,  Donald
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Smith,  Robin S.
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Straneo,  Fiammetta
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Sun,  Sainan
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Tarasov,  Lev
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Trusel,  Luke D.
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Van Breedam,  Jonas
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Wal,  Roderik van de
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Broeke,  Michiel van den
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/persons/resource/Ricarda.Winkelmann

Winkelmann,  Ricarda
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Zhao,  Chen
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Zhang,  Tong
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Zwinger,  Thomas
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Fulltext (public)

26384oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 888KB

Supplementary Material (public)
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Citation

Payne, A. J., Nowicki, S., Abe‐Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Asay‐Davis, X., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Edwards, T. L., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Galton‐Fenzi, B. K., Goelzer, H., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Munneke, P. K., Larour, E., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G., Lipscomb, W. H., Little, C. M., Lowry, D. P., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Rückamp, M., Schlegel, N., Seroussi, H., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Tarasov, L., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., Wal, R. v. d., Broeke, M. v. d., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., Zwinger, T. (2021): Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. - Geophysical Research Letters, 48, 16, e2020GL091741.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26384
Abstract
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.