Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit

Duan, Hongbo; Zhou, Sheng; Jiang, Kejun; Bertram, Christoph; Harmsen, Mathijs; Kriegler, Elmar; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wang, Shouyang; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Tavoni, Massimo; Ming, Xi; Keramidas, Kimon; Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

doi:10.1126/science.aba8767

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Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit

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Duan, Hongbo
External Organizations;

Zhou, Sheng
External Organizations;

Jiang, Kejun
External Organizations;

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Bertram, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Harmsen, Mathijs
External Organizations;

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Kriegler, Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

van Vuuren, Detlef P.
External Organizations;

Wang, Shouyang
External Organizations;

Fujimori, Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Tavoni, Massimo
External Organizations;

Ming, Xi
External Organizations;

Keramidas, Kimon
External Organizations;

Iyer, Gokul
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Edmonds, James
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Citation

Duan, H., Zhou, S., Jiang, K., Bertram, C., Harmsen, M., Kriegler, E., van Vuuren, D. P., Wang, S., Fujimori, S., Tavoni, M., Ming, X., Keramidas, K., Iyer, G., Edmonds, J. (2021): Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit. - Science, 372, 6540, 378-385.
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba8767

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26631

Abstract

Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5°C, a key question is what this would mean for China’s emission pathway, energy restructuring, and decarbonization. By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5°C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, respectively, compared with the “no policy” case. Negative emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon accounting on average for 20% of the total reductions in 2050. Our multimodel comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission reductions across sectors, whereas what is consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model averages indicate that China’s accumulated policy costs may amount to 2.8 to 5.7% of its gross domestic product by 2050, given the 1.5°C warming limit.