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Abstract

Precursor signals for bifurcation-induced critical transitions have recently gained interest across
many research fields. Common indicators, including variance and autocorrelation increases, rely
on the dynamical system being driven by white noise. Here, we show that these metrics raise
false alarms for systems driven by time-correlated noise, if the autocorrelation of the noise process
increases with time. We introduce a new indicator for systems driven by non-stationary short-term
memory noise, and show that this indicator performs well in situations where the classical methods
fail.