Soil quality both increases crop production and improves resilience to climate 
change

Qiao, Lei; Wang, Xuhui; Smith, Pete; Fan, Jinlong; Lu, Yuelei; Emmett, Bridget; Li, Rong; Dorling, Stephen; Chen, Haiqing; Liu, Shaogui; Benton, Tim G.; Wang, Yaojun; Ma, Yuqing; Jiang, Rongfeng; Zhang, Fusuo; Piao, Shilong; Müller, Christoph; Yang, Huaqing; Hao, Yanan; Li, Wangmei; Fan, Mingsheng

doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01376-8

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Soil quality both increases crop production and improves resilience to climate change

Authors

Qiao, Lei
External Organizations;

Wang, Xuhui
External Organizations;

Smith, Pete
External Organizations;

Fan, Jinlong
External Organizations;

Lu, Yuelei
External Organizations;

Emmett, Bridget
External Organizations;

Li, Rong
External Organizations;

Dorling, Stephen
External Organizations;

Chen, Haiqing
External Organizations;

Liu, Shaogui
External Organizations;

Benton, Tim G.
External Organizations;

Wang, Yaojun
External Organizations;

Ma, Yuqing
External Organizations;

Jiang, Rongfeng
External Organizations;

Zhang, Fusuo
External Organizations;

Piao, Shilong
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Yang, Huaqing
External Organizations;

Hao, Yanan
External Organizations;

Li, Wangmei
External Organizations;

Fan, Mingsheng
External Organizations;

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Citation

Qiao, L., Wang, X., Smith, P., Fan, J., Lu, Y., Emmett, B., Li, R., Dorling, S., Chen, H., Liu, S., Benton, T. G., Wang, Y., Ma, Y., Jiang, R., Zhang, F., Piao, S., Müller, C., Yang, H., Hao, Y., Li, W., Fan, M. (2022): Soil quality both increases crop production and improves resilience to climate change. - Nature Climate Change, 12, 6, 574-580.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01376-8

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26984

Abstract

Interactions between soil quality and climate change may influence the capacity of croplands to produce sufficient food. Here, we address this issue by using a new dataset of soil, climate and associated yield observations for 12,115 site-years representing 90% of total cereal production in China. Across crops and environmental conditions, we show that high-quality soils reduced the sensitivity of crop yield to climate variability leading to both higher mean crop yield (10.3 ± 6.7%) and higher yield stability (decreasing variability by 15.6 ± 14.4%). High-quality soils improve the outcome for yields under climate change by 1.7% (0.5–4.0%), compared to low-quality soils. Climate-driven yield change could result in reductions of national cereal production of 11.4 Mt annually under representative concentration pathway RCP 8.5 by 2080–2099. While this production reduction was exacerbated by 14% due to soil degradation, it can be reduced by 21% through soil improvement. This study emphasizes the vital role of soil quality in agriculture under climate change.