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Journal Article

Accuracy, realism and general applicability of European forest models

Authors
/persons/resource/mahnken

Mahnken,  Mats
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Cailleret,  Maxime
External Organizations;

Collalti,  Alessio
External Organizations;

Trotta,  Carlo
External Organizations;

Biondo,  Corrado
External Organizations;

D’Andrea,  Ettore
External Organizations;

Dalmonech,  Daniela
External Organizations;

Marano,  Gina
External Organizations;

Mäkelä,  Annikki
External Organizations;

Minunno,  Francesco
External Organizations;

Peltoniemi,  Mikko
External Organizations;

Trotsiuk,  Volodymyr
External Organizations;

Nadal-Sala,  Daniel
External Organizations;

Sabaté,  Santiago
External Organizations;

Vallet,  Patrick
External Organizations;

Aussenac,  Raphaël
External Organizations;

Cameron,  David
External Organizations;

Bohn,  Friedrich
External Organizations;

Grote,  Rüdiger
External Organizations;

Augustynczik,  Andrey Lessa Derci
External Organizations;

Yousefpour,  Rasoul
External Organizations;

Huber,  N.
External Organizations;

Bugmann,  Harald
External Organizations;

Merganičová,  Katarina
External Organizations;

Merganič,  Jan
External Organizations;

Valent,  Peter
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Petra.Lasch

Lasch-Born,  Petra
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Hartig,  Florian
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/delvalle

Vega del Valle,  Iliusi
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jan.Volkholz

Volkholz,  Jan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Martin.Gutsch

Gutsch,  Martin
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Matteucci,  Giorgio
External Organizations;

Krejza,  Jan
External Organizations;

Ibrom,  A.
External Organizations;

Meesenburg,  Henning
External Organizations;

Rötzer,  Thomas
External Organizations;

van der Maaten-Theunissen,  Marieke
External Organizations;

van der Maaten,  Ernst
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Reyer

Reyer,  Christopher P. O.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Fulltext (public)

27331oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 2MB

Supplementary Material (public)
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Citation

Mahnken, M., Cailleret, M., Collalti, A., Trotta, C., Biondo, C., D’Andrea, E., Dalmonech, D., Marano, G., Mäkelä, A., Minunno, F., Peltoniemi, M., Trotsiuk, V., Nadal-Sala, D., Sabaté, S., Vallet, P., Aussenac, R., Cameron, D., Bohn, F., Grote, R., Augustynczik, A. L. D., Yousefpour, R., Huber, N., Bugmann, H., Merganičová, K., Merganič, J., Valent, P., Lasch-Born, P., Hartig, F., Vega del Valle, I., Volkholz, J., Gutsch, M., Matteucci, G., Krejza, J., Ibrom, A., Meesenburg, H., Rötzer, T., van der Maaten-Theunissen, M., van der Maaten, E., Reyer, C. P. O. (2022): Accuracy, realism and general applicability of European forest models. - Global Change Biology, 28, 23, 6921-6943.
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16384


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27331
Abstract
Forest models are instrumental for understanding and projecting the impact of climate change on forests. A considerable number of forest models have been developed in the last decades. However, few systematic and comprehensive model comparisons have been performed in Europe that combine an evaluation of modelled carbon and water fluxes and forest structure. We evaluate 13 widely-used, state-of-the-art, stand-scale forest models against field measurements of forest structure and eddy-covariance data of carbon and water fluxes over multiple decades across an environmental gradient at nine typical European forest stands. We test the models’ performance in three dimensions: accuracy of local predictions (agreement of modelled and observed annual data), realism of environmental responses (agreement of modelled and observed responses of daily gross primary productivity to temperature, radiation and vapor pressure deficit) and general applicability (proportion of European tree species covered). We find that multiple models are available that excel according to our three dimensions of model performance. For the accuracy of local predictions, variables related to forest structure have lower random and systematic errors than annual carbon and water flux variables. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble mean provided overall more realistic daily productivity responses to environmental drivers across all sites than any single individual model. The general applicability of the models is high, as almost all models are currently able to cover Europe’s common tree species. We show that forest models complement each other in their response to environmental drivers and that there are several cases in which individual models outperform the model ensemble. Our framework provides a first step to capturing essential differences between forest models that go beyond the most commonly used accuracy of predictions. Overall, this study provides a point of reference for future model work aimed at predicting climate impacts and supporting climate mitigation and adaptation measures in forests.