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Journal Article

Climate change impacts on European arable crop yields: sensitivity to assumptions about rotations and residue management


Faye,  Babacar
External Organizations;

Webber,  Heidi
External Organizations;

Gaiser,  Thomas
External Organizations;


Müller,  Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Zhang,  Yinan
External Organizations;

Stella,  Tommaso
External Organizations;

Latka,  Catharina
External Organizations;

Reckling,  Moritz
External Organizations;

Heckelei,  Thomas
External Organizations;

Ewert,  Frank
External Organizations;

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Faye, B., Webber, H., Gaiser, T., Müller, C., Zhang, Y., Stella, T., Latka, C., Reckling, M., Heckelei, T., Ewert, F. (2022 online): Climate change impacts on European arable crop yields: sensitivity to assumptions about rotations and residue management. - European Journal of Agronomy, 142, 126670.

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27460
Most large scale studies assessing climate change impacts on crops are performed with simulations of single crops and with annual reinitialization of the initial soil conditions. This is in contrast to the reality that crops are grown in rotations, often with sizable proportion of the preceding crop residue to be left in the fields and varying soil initial conditions from year to year. In this study, the sensitivity of climate change impacts on crop yield and soil organic carbon to assumptions about annual model reinitialization, specification of crop rotations and the amount of residue retained in fields was assessed for seven main crops across Europe. Simulations were conducted for a scenario period 2040-2065 relative to a baseline from 1980-2005 using the SIMPLACE1modelling framework. Results indicated across Europe positive climate change impacts on yield for C3 crops and negative impacts for maize. The consideration of simulating rotations did not have a benefit on yield variability but on relative yield change in response to climate change which slightly increased for C3 crops and decreased for C4 crops when rotation was considered. Soil organic carbon decreased under climate change in both simulations assuming a continuous monocrop and plausible rotations by between 3% and 10% depending on the residue management strategy.