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Annex III: Scenarios and modelling methods

Authors

Guivarch,  Celine
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler,  Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Portugal-Pereira,  Joana
External Organizations;

Bosetti,  Valentina
External Organizations;

Edmonds,  James
External Organizations;

Fischedick,  Manfred
External Organizations;

Havlik,  Petr
External Organizations;

Jaramillo,  Paulina
External Organizations;

Krey,  Volker
External Organizations;

Lecocq,  Franck
External Organizations;

Lucena,  Andre F. P.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/meinshausen

Meinshausen,  Malte
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Mirasgedis,  Sebastian
External Organizations;

O'Neill,  Brian
External Organizations;

Peters,  Glen P.
External Organizations;

Rogelj,  Joeri
External Organizations;

Rose,  Steven
External Organizations;

Saheb,  Yamina
External Organizations;

Strbac,  Goran
External Organizations;

Stromman,  Anders Hammer
External Organizations;

van Vuuren,  Detlef P.
External Organizations;

Zhou,  Nan
External Organizations;

Al Khourdajie,  Alaa
External Organizations;

Ameli,  Hossein
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/auer

Auer,  Cornelia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Nicolas.Bauer

Bauer,  Nicolas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Byers,  Edward
External Organizations;

Craig,  Michael
External Organizations;

Cunha,  Bruno
External Organizations;

Frank,  Stefan
External Organizations;

Fuglestvedt,  Jan S.
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Harmsen,  Mathijs
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Jenn,  Alan
External Organizations;

Kikstra,  Jarmo
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Kishimoto,  Paul
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Lamboll,  Robin
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Lefevre,  Julien
External Organizations;

Masanet,  Eric
External Organizations;

McCollum,  David
External Organizations;

Nicholls,  Zebedee
External Organizations;

Novikova,  Aleksandra
External Organizations;

Parkinson,  Simon
External Organizations;

Rochedo,  Pedro
External Organizations;

Samadi,  Sasha
External Organizations;

Verze,  David
External Organizations;

Yeh,  Sonia
External Organizations;

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Citation

Guivarch, C., Kriegler, E., Portugal-Pereira, J., Bosetti, V., Edmonds, J., Fischedick, M., Havlik, P., Jaramillo, P., Krey, V., Lecocq, F., Lucena, A. F. P., Meinshausen, M., Mirasgedis, S., O'Neill, B., Peters, G. P., Rogelj, J., Rose, S., Saheb, Y., Strbac, G., Stromman, A. H., van Vuuren, D. P., Zhou, N., Al Khourdajie, A., Ameli, H., Auer, C., Bauer, N., Byers, E., Craig, M., Cunha, B., Frank, S., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Harmsen, M., Jenn, A., Kikstra, J., Kishimoto, P., Lamboll, R., Lefevre, J., Masanet, E., McCollum, D., Nicholls, Z., Novikova, A., Parkinson, S., Rochedo, P., Samadi, S., Verze, D., Yeh, S. (2022): Annex III: Scenarios and modelling methods. - In: Shukla, P. R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Koourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, M., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J. (Eds.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva : The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1841-1908.


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27760
Abstract
The use of scenarios and modelling methods are pillars in IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) Assessment Reports. Past WGIII assessment report cycles identified knowledge gaps about the integration of modelling across scales and disciplines, mainly between global integrated assessment modelling methods and bottom-up modelling insights of mitigation responses. The need to improve the transparency of model assumptions and enhance the communication of scenario results was also recognised. This annex on Scenarios and Modelling Methods aims to address some of these gaps by detailing the modelling frameworks applied in the WGIII Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) chapters and disclose scenario assumptions and its key parameters. It has been explicitly included in the Scoping Meeting Report of the WGIII contribution to the AR6 and approved by the IPCC Panel at the 46th Session of the Panel. The annex includes two parts: Part I on Modelling Methods summarises methods and tools available to evaluate sectoral, technological and behavioural mitigation responses as well as integrated assessment models (IAMs) for the analysis of ‘whole system’ transformation pathways; Part II on Scenarios sets out the portfolio of climate change scenarios and mitigation pathways assessed in the AR6 WGIII chapters, its underlying principles and interactions with scenario assessments by WGI and WGII.