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Journal Article

Responsibility of major emitters for country-level warming and extreme hot years

Authors

Beusch,  Lea
External Organizations;

Nauels,  Alexander
External Organizations;

Gudmundsson,  Lukas
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Guetschow

Gütschow,  Johannes
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Schleussner,  Carl-Friedrich
External Organizations;

Seneviratne,  Sonia I.
External Organizations;

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Fulltext (public)

s43247-021-00320-6.pdf
(Publisher version), 4MB

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Citation

Beusch, L., Nauels, A., Gudmundsson, L., Gütschow, J., Schleussner, C.-F., Seneviratne, S. I. (2022): Responsibility of major emitters for country-level warming and extreme hot years. - Communications Earth and Environment, 3, 7.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00320-6


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27839
Abstract
The contributions of single greenhouse gas emitters to country-level climate change are generally not disentangled, despite their relevance for climate policy and litigation. Here, we quantify the contributions of the five largest emitters (China, US, EU-27, India, and Russia) to projected 2030 country-level warming and extreme hot years with respect to pre-industrial climate using an innovative suite of Earth System Model emulators. We find that under current pledges, their cumulated 1991–2030 emissions are expected to result in extreme hot years every second year by 2030 in twice as many countries (92%) as without their influence (46%). If all world nations shared the same fossil CO2 per capita emissions as projected for the US from 2016–2030, global warming in 2030 would be 0.4 °C higher than under actual current pledges, and 75% of all countries would exceed 2 °C of regional warming instead of 11%. Our results highlight the responsibility of individual emitters in driving regional climate change and provide additional angles for the climate policy discourse.