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Journal Article

Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming

Authors
/persons/resource/christian.otto

Otto,  Christian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Kilian.Kuhla

Kuhla,  Kilian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/geiger

Geiger,  Tobias
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Schewe

Schewe,  Jacob
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Katja.Frieler

Frieler,  Katja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Fulltext (public)

sciadv.add6616.pdf
(Publisher version), 2MB

Supplementary Material (public)
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Citation

Otto, C., Kuhla, K., Geiger, T., Schewe, J., Frieler, K. (2023): Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming. - Science Advances, 9, 1, eadd6616.
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27863
Abstract
Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks. For the United States, we find that economic growth losses scale superlinearly with shock heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with the magnitude of direct damage, which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. On the basis of two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we project annual growth losses to increase between 10 and 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980–2014. Our modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can compensate for this climate change–induced increase in growth losses.